Direct Impacts of Climate Change and Indirect Impacts of Non-Climate Change on Land Surface Phenology Variation across Northern China

Abstract

Land surface phenology (LSP) is a sensitive indicator of climate change. Understanding the variation in LSP under various impacts can improve our knowledge on ecosystem dynamics and biosphere-atmosphere interactions. Over recent decades, LSP derived from remote sensing data and climate change-related variation of LSP have been widely reported at the regional and global scales. However, the smoothing methods of the vegetation index (i.e., NDVI) are diverse, and discrepancies among methods may result in different results. Additionally, LSP is affected by climate change and non-climate change simultaneously. However, few studies have focused on the isolated impacts of climate change and the impacts of non-climate change on LSP variation. In this study, four methods were applied to reconstruct the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) dataset to choose the best smoothing result to estimate LSP. Subsequently, the variation in the start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS) under isolated impacts of climate change were analyzed. Furthermore, the indirect effects of isolated impacts of non-climate change were conducted based on the differences between the combined impact (the impacts of both climate change and non-climate change) and isolated impacts of climate change. Our results indicated that the Savitzky-Golay method is the best method of the four for smoothing EVI in Northern China. Additionally, SOS displayed an advanced trend under the impacts of both climate change and non-climate change (hereafter called the combined impact), isolated impacts of climate change, and isolated impacts of non-climate change, with mean values of −0.26, −0.07, and −0.17 days per year, respectively. Moreover, the trend of SOS continued after 2000, but the magnitudes of changes in SOS after 2000 were lower than those that were estimated over the last two decades of the twentieth century (previous studies). EOS showed a delayed trend under the combined impact and isolated impacts of non-climate change, with mean values of 0.41 and 0.43 days per year, respectively. However, EOS advanced with a mean value of −0.16 days per year under the isolated impacts of climate change. Furthermore, the absolute mean values of SOS and EOS trends under the isolated impacts of non-climate change were larger than that of the isolated impacts of climate change, indicating that the effect of non-climate change on LSP variation was larger than that of climate change. With regard to the relative contribution of climatic factors to the variation in SOS and EOS, the proportion of solar radiation was the largest for both SOS and EOS, followed by precipitation and temperature.