Abstract
Distance and space are important factors affecting international trade, but they have different effects on cross-border e-commerce (CBE) due to the creation of the Internet. This study utilizes spatial autocorrelation, the multi-dimension gravity model and the Spatial Durbin model to conduct an comparative analysis of international trade and CBE within one-belt one-road (BR) countries. Our study obtained several key findings. Firstly, the spatial autocorrelation effect which exists in international trade does not exist in CBE. Secondly, the geographical distance effect of CBE is not significant, which is different from that of international trade. Thirdly, CBE is affected by GDP, culture, policy and institution distances which is not entirely consistent with international trade. Finally, the Spatial Durbin model shows that the spillover effect of CBE and international trade are both significant in the inverse distance weight matrix. These findings provide not only important theoretical contributions but also a practical guide for Government policy makers of the BR and CBE.
Highlights
Since the One Belt, One Road (BR) initiative was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, this ambitious foreign and economic policy framework has become a significant ideological objective of the Chinese Government
This study utilizes spatial autocorrelation, the multi-dimension gravity model, and the spatial Durbin model to conduct a comparative analysis of international trade and CBE within one-belt one-road (BR) countries
The adjusted R2 of multi-dimensional distance models are higher than those in classical gravity models. This indicates that the goodness of fit for multi-dimensional distance models are higher than that of the classical gravity models, which implies stronger explanatory power for analysis of international trade and CBE
Summary
Since the One Belt, One Road (BR) initiative was first proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, this ambitious foreign and economic policy framework has become a significant ideological objective of the Chinese Government. Cross-border e-commerce (CBE) is a new form of international trade. It has been instrumental in increasing global competitiveness and in helping to provide the retail industry with modern, global, virtual features. China and the US are the most popular cross-border destinations for global shoppers, while western European markets are the most popular market along with Japan. As the leading global player, China has seen year-on-year growth of 20% in CBE transactions since 2008, with the total volume of transactions reaching 8.2 trillion yuan in 20173. Aliexpress, the most popular online retail platform in China, has almost 500 million registered users, with more than 60 million people visit the Aliexpress website every day, purchasing over 48,000 items every minute (Chen, 2017)
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