Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen des Brexits

Abstract

Abstract The United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) has negatively affected its economic performance in the years after the 2016 referendum. A growing literature on the short-run effects of Brexit has documented that UK economic activity has been affected through a mix of uncertainty and anticipation effects. This literature has shown that UK GDP and investment have been negatively affected and inflation has increased as a consequence of the outcome of the referendum. Comparatively little is known about the effects of the UK’s subsequent exit from the single market and customs union in January 2021, but existing research has documented negative effects on UK trade, in particular UK imports from the European Union. But whether this will lead to subsequent further declines in UK GDP remains to be seen and will also depend on future EU-UK efforts to reduce the trade barriers created by the trade and cooperation agreement (TCA) of 2020.