Did Everybody Know It All Along? A Review of Individual Differences in Hindsight Bias

Abstract

Hindsight bias has traditionally been regarded in light of general laws of information processing and memory. The current review presents a complementary view of hindsight bias, summarizing research on individual differences in the magnitude of the bias. According to an individual difference perspective, the magnitude of the bias is influenced by individual traits, needs, and motives, and not exclusively the result of rational, if sometimes faulty, information processing. Our review emphasizes those traits that, on theoretical grounds, have been argued to moderate the magnitude of hindsight bias. Empirical evidence regarding their possible influence is discussed and evaluated. The variables that seem to be most strongly associated with the magnitude of hindsight bias are field dependence, intelligence, and self–presentational concerns. The negligence of design considerations, a sometimes low reliability of hindsight measures, and insufficient statistical power are discussed as major methodological problems. Recommendations for future research are given.