Abstract

Ecological restoration programs are expected to control environmental deterioration and enhance ecosystem functions under a scenario of increasing human disturbance. The largest ecological restoration program ever implemented in China, the first round of the countrywide Grain for Green Program (GGP), finished in 2010. However, it is not known whether the ecological changes that resulted from the GGP met the restoration goal across the whole implementation region. In this study, we monitored and assessed the ecological changes in the whole GGP region in China over the lifetime of the first round of implementation (2000–2010), by establishing a comprehensive assessment indicator system composed of ecosystem pattern, ecosystem quality (EQ), and key ecosystem services (ESs). Remote sensing interpretation, ecological model simulations based on multi-source images, and trend analysis were used to generate land use and land cover (LULC) datasets and estimate ES and ESs indicators. Results showed that while forest increased by 0.77%, artificial land increased more intensely by 22.38%, and cropland and grassland decreased by 1.81% and 0.68%, respectively. The interconversion of cropland and forest played a primary role in ecosystem pattern change. The increase in ecosystem quality measures, including fractional vegetation cover (0.1459% yr−1), leaf area index (0.0121 yr−1), and net primary productivity (2.6958 gC m−2 yr−1), and the mitigation of ecosystem services deterioration in soil water loss (−0.0841 t ha yr−1) and soil wind loss (−1.0071 t ha yr−1) in the GGP region, indicated the positive ecological change in the GGP region to some extent, while southern GGP subregions improved more than the those in the north on the whole. The GGP implementation other than climate change impacted ecological change, with contributions of 14.23%, 9.94%, 8.23%, 30.45%, and 18.05% in the ecological outputs mentioned above, respectively. However, the water regulation did not improve (−2283 t km−2 yr−1), revealing trade-offs between ecosystem services and inappropriate afforestation in ecological restoration programs. Future GGP implementation should change the practice of large-scale afforestation, and focus more on the restoration of existing forest and cultivation of young plantings, formulating rational and specific plans and designs for afforestation areas through the establishment of near-natural vegetation communities, instead of single-species plantations, guided by regional climate and geographical characteristics.

Highlights

  • Humans have displayed a history of deforesting and changing land use and land cover since farming began

  • net primary productivity (NPP) is the difference of gross primary productivity (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (Ra), where GPP is estimated by the GLoPEM model, and Ra is divided into maintenance respiration (Rm) and growth respiration (Rg) from four plant parts—thick root, thin root, stem, and leaf—with reference to the process-based BEPS model and Biome-BGC model: GPP = PAR × FPAR × εg

  • The artificial land increased dramatically by 22.38%; forest and wetland increased slightly by 0.77% and 1.03%, respectively; and cropland, grassland, and cropland decreased by 1.81%, 0.68%, and 0.41%, respectively

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Summary

Introduction

Humans have displayed a history of deforesting and changing land use and land cover since farming began. From the 1950s to the 1980s, China experienced severe losses of forest and grassland because of large-scale deforestation and grassland reclamation for crop production and industrial construction [2,3,4,5] This pattern of changing land use has led to severe soil erosion [6]; land desertification [7,8]; loss of biodiversity [9,10]; drying rivers and shrinking lakes [11]; and the frequent occurrence of dust storms, floods, and drought [1,12,13]. R(2e)mhotoe wSencsa. 2n01th9,e1s1e, xecFoOlRogPEicEaRl RchEVanIEgWes be measured comprehensively and effectively?; (3) did the 3wohfo2le GGP implementation region show a notable positive trend of ecological change?; and (4) to what eexxtteenntt ddiidd tthhee GGGGPPiimmpplleemmeennttaattiioonn iimmpprroovvee tthhee eeccoollooggiiccaall eennvviirroonnmmeenntt aafftteerr eexxcclluuddiinngg tthhee iinnfflluueennccee ooff cclliimmaattee cchhaannggee??

MMaatteerrials and Methods
Generation of Land Use and Land Cover Datasets
Detection of Ecosystem Pattern Changes
Ecosystem Quality Estimation
Estimation of Ecosystem Services
Trend Analysis
Changes in Ecosystem Pattern
Spatial Pattern and Temporal Trend of Ecosystem Quality
Spatial Pattern and Temporal Trend of Key Ecosystem Services
Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Change in the GGP Subregions
Implications for the New Round of the GGP
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