Dialectical Waves of Change: Using Dialectics, Emerging Issue Analysis and the Futures Wheel to Develop a Tool for Applied Futures Research

Abstract

The dialectical method is a well-known and often used framework for the analysis of historical processes. We argue that its features could also be useful in futures studies. This idea was confirmed during a case study for an arts center in Flanders, Belgium, when an exploration of the history of the cultural landscape made clear that dialectics would present an interesting lens for looking forward too. The need for a practical tool using dialectical analysis presented itself. This article further builds upon Timothy E. Dolan’s protocol to use dialectics as a framing tool in futures, which is worked into a technique that can be used in applied futures exercises by implementing mechanics that take into account the time it takes for emerging issues to develop within a dialectical process, as well as ways to reflect on those developments over time. In this article, different iterations of dialectics through history are explored, as well as arguments for using it in futures studies. Next, a model of “dialectical waves of change” is created by combining Dolan’s concept of “emerging contradictions” with features of Marxist dialectic, as well as with aspects of existing futures techniques such as emerging issue analysis and the futures wheel. The use of this new tool in the case study for the Flemish arts center nOna is explained and learnings from the project are discussed.