Diagnosis of the summertime warm and dry bias over the U.S. Southern Great Plains in the GFDL climate model using a weather forecasting approach

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Weather forecasts started from realistic initial conditions are used to diagnose the large warm and dry bias over the United States Southern Great Plains simulated by the GFDL climate model. The forecasts exhibit biases in surface air temperature and precipitation within 3 days which appear to be similar to the climate bias. With the model simulating realistic evaporation but underestimated precipitation, a deficit in soil moisture results which amplifies the initial temperature bias through feedbacks with the land surface. The underestimate of precipitation may be associated with an inability of the model to simulate the eastward propagation of convection from the front‐range of the Rocky Mountains and is insensitive to an increase of horizontal resolution from 2° to 0.5° latitude.