Diagnosing nonlinearities in the local and remote responses to partial Amazon deforestation

Abstract

AbstractUsing a set of fully coupled climate model simulations, the response to partial deforestation over the Amazon due to agricultural expansion has been analyzed. Three variations of 50% deforestation (all of western half, all of eastern half, and half of each grid box) were compared with total deforestation to determine the degree and character of nonlinearity of the climate response to partial deforestation. A metric is developed to quantify the degree and distribution of nonlinearity in the response, applicable to any variable. The metric also quantifies whether the response is saturating or accelerating, meaning significantly either more or less than 50% of the simulated response to total deforestation is attained at 50% deforestation. The spatial structure of the atmospheric response to Amazon deforestation reveals large areas across the tropics that exhibit a significant nonlinear component, particularly for temperature and geopotential height. Over the domain between 45°S and 45°N across all longitudes, 50% deforestation generally provides less than half of the total response to deforestation over oceans, indicating the marine portion of climate system is somewhat resilient to progressive deforestation. However, over continents there are both accelerating and saturating responses to 50% Amazon deforestation, and the response is different depending on whether the eastern or western half of Amazonia is deforested or half of the forest is removed uniformly across the region.