Abstract

The method for portfolio investment, allowing the formation of the optimal portfolio structure considering degrees of satisfaction of requirements of stakeholder groups, risks and uncertainty of external and internal environment, was proposed. The model that represents a fuzzy nonlinear programming problem was considered. The weighted average of project utility is used as objective function. The utilities of projects are multiplicative Cobb-Douglas type functions using, along with financial indicators, expert verbal evaluations of qualitative indi­cators of satisfaction of stakeholder requirements, converted into fuzzy numbers. Exponents in this function reflect the significance of stake­holders for the organization in terms of the existing resource sharing between a company and a stakeholder and the degree of mutual influ­ence. Quantitative accounting of risks is implemented based on the H. Markowitz approach and the scenario-based method. Uncertainty and lack of information for the indicator of economic efficiency of projects is modeled through the use of the fuzzy approach. Constraints in the model are also fuzzy. The transforming from a fuzzy optimization problem into a crisp problem is performed by assigning the satisfac­tion degrees for an objective function and the constraints. The choice of a certain satisfaction degree also makes it possible to some extent to take into account uncertainty, which, in turn, affects the composition of the portfolio. The solution to the model is found numerically using the proposed method, which allows, based on fuzzy utilities, finding fuzzy objective function and constraints, and transforming a fuzzy model into a crisp quadratic programming problem at specified satisfaction degrees. The example of the formation of an optimal portfolio of investment projects of a fishing industrial enterprise was explored.

Highlights

  • The success of operation of most modern large organizations is determined by their ability to meet the requirements of multiple stakeholders

  • Traditional methods for project portfolio selection are based on the use of various financial indicators, which, do not always are key indicators both in terms of successful implementation of a project, and in terms of achieving the strategic objectives of an organization [1]

  • We developed the fuzzy optimization model of portfolio investment based on multiplicative function of projects’ utility that uses expert estimates of quality indicators of satisfaction of stakeholders’ requirements represented in verbal form, along with financial indicators, The project utility is a multiplicative Cobb-Douglas type function, the factors of which describe the degree of satisfaction of requirements of a separate stakeholder to an organization

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Summary

Introduction

The success of operation of most modern large organizations is determined by their ability to meet the requirements of multiple stakeholders. Traditional methods for project portfolio selection are based on the use of various financial indicators, which, do not always are key indicators both in terms of successful implementation of a project, and in terms of achieving the strategic objectives of an organization [1] In this regard, when solving the problem of portfolio investment, it is necessary to take into account, along with financial indicators, qualitative indicators, reflecting the value (utility) of potential projects for stakeholders. This utility can be expressed in an increase in stakeholders’ satisfaction with relationships with an organization as a result of the project implementation. – make the best use of the available resources; – take into account the uncertainty of external and internal environment, affecting the achievement of results

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