Formation of an optimal portfolio of venture projects

Abstract

Purpose. Development of a method for forming an optimal portfolio of venture projects taking into account risks, uncertainty in initial data and limited financial resources. Methodology. To calculate the accuracy of forecasting prices, which are necessary for calculating the parameters of the stochastic optimization model for the formation of a portfolio of projects, we used the theory of random variables and regression analysis. The problem of choosing the optimal portfolio of venture projects was solved using stochastic mathematical programming. Findings. A model for creating an optimal portfolio of venture projects has been developed. It is a stochastic mathematical programming model that can be used to solve problems of investing in venture projects in the extractive industry. This model takes into account the risks associated with obtaining the expected income from the implementation of each venture project, the uncertainty in the initial data for calculating the income from the projects selected in the portfolio, as well as the limited funds required to finance the project portfolio. Originality. The stochastic optimization model for the formation of an optimal portfolio of projects, taking into account the peculiarities of venture projects, in particular, their high riskiness, has been significantly improved and adapted. Practical value. The proposed model for the formation of an optimal portfolio of venture projects can be used at mining enterprises, whose development strategy involves the implementation of innovative, high-risk projects. The use of this model in strategic planning will allow an enterprise to receive the maximum income from venture projects in the face of a lack of financial resources, as well as instability of the innovation market.