Development of statistical model for Pre-Harvest yield prediction of Kharif groundnut in Jamnagar District of Gujarat State

Abstract

Groundnut productivity depends considerably on soil characteristics and weather conditions during season. The present study of forecasting groundnut yield for Jamnagar district of Gujarat, is based on weekly average data of weather parameters like maximum and minimum temperature, morning and afternoon relative humidity, sunshine hours and historic total rainfall over a period of 35 years (1976–2010) for Jamnagar district of Gujarat. The method used for forecasting yield involved original weather variables and week-wise approach. The time trend was included as an explanatory variable. For this district, the model of 14-week period (week-wise approach) was selected. The model for Jamnagar district can be used for providing pre-harvest forecast two weeks before expected harvest date. The results of the study show that model selected for Jamnagar district for pre-harvest forecast explained more than 86 percent variation and thus suggested good prediction ability.