A statistical investigation on relationship between weather parameters and chickpea yield in Jamnagar district of Gujarat state

Abstract

An attempt has been made to quantify the effect of climate change on chickpea production and relationship between weather parameters and yield of chickpea crop in Jamnagar district of Gujarat state. Crop production and productivity depend on climate in general and weather in particular. The productivity of the crop depends on soil characteristics and weather conditions during season. The present study of forecasting of gram crop yield for Jamnagar district based on weekly average data of weather parameters viz. minimum temperature (X1), maximum temperature (X2), morning relative humidity (X3), afternoon relative humidity (X4), sunshine hours (X5) and total annual rainfall of past year (X6) were analyzed for the crop weather relationship to develop regression model. The time trend (T) was also included as explanatory variable. The data pertaining for the period of 30 years weather and crop yield records of Jamnagar district were collected. The approach used for forecasting yield was original weather variables and week wise approach. The time trend was include as an explanatory variable. For this district, the model of 14 weeks period (week wise approach) was selected. Result revealed that the model of 14 weeks crop period could be suggested as a pre-harvest forecast model. The variation explained by this model was 86.17% (R2) and simulated forecast error was less than 7%. The model for Jamnagar district can be used for providing pre-harvest forecast two weeks before expected harvest.