Abstract
Methodologies for assessing the seismic risk of a high speed railway system were limited to analysis of fragilities of structures and vibration dynamics of vehicles in the past. A deterministic or scenario based approach assuming a particular devastating earthquake was also used in some methodologies. A seismic risk assessment methodology that can estimate the risk of derailment caused by earthquake is proposed in this study. Among constituent factors, the effectiveness of the seismic early warning system that detects the occurrence of earthquakes before the strong ground motion reaches the line is concerned. This study addresses a formulated method to quantify cost-benefit tradeoffs between gain in safety and false alarms. In addition, an assessment model of consequences in terms of injuries and fatalities in derailment disaster, an approach method for network of Shinkansen, and a graphical user interface are considered as perspective studies.
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