Development of Predictive Models for the Growth of Escherichia coli O157:H7 on Cabbage in Korea

Abstract

Cabbage is the main material of coleslaw, a popular side dish in Korea as well as many other countries. In the present study, the combined effect of temperature (15, 25, and 35 °C) and relative humidity (60%, 70%, and 80%) on the growth of Escherichia coli O157:H7 on cabbage was investigated. The polynomial models for growth rate (GR), lag time (LT), and maximum population density (MPD) estimated from the Baranyi model were conducted with high coefficients of determination (R(2)> 0.98). Subsequently, performance and reliability of the models were assessed through external validation, employing three indices as bias factor (B(f)), accuracy factor (A(f)), and the standard error of prediction expressed in percentage (%SEP). The B(f), A(f), and %SEP values of the predictive models for GR were 1.008, 1.127 and 18.70%, while 1.033, 1.187 and 20.79% for LT and 0.960, 1.044 and 5.22% for MPD, respectively. The results demonstrated that the developed secondary models showed a good agreement between the observed and predicted values. Therefore, the established models can be suitable to estimate and control E. coli O157:H7 growth risk on cabbage at some steps from farm to table in Korea as a valuable tool.