Modeling the Effect of Storage Temperatures on the Growth of Listeria monocytogenes on Ready-to-Eat Ham and Sausage

Abstract

The aim of this study was to model the growth kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on ready-to-eat ham and sausage at different temperatures (4 to 35°C). The observed data fitted well with four primary models (Baranyi, modified Gompertz, logistic, and Huang) with high coefficients of determination (R2 > 0.98) at all measured temperatures. After the mean square error (0.009 to 0.051), bias factors (0.99 to 1.06), and accuracy factors (1.01 to 1.09) were obtained in all models, the square root and the natural logarithm model were employed to describe the relation between temperature and specific growth rate (SGR) and lag time (LT) derived from the primary models. These models were validated against the independent data observed from additional experiments using the acceptable prediction zone method and the proportion of the standard error of prediction. All secondary models based on each of the four primary models were acceptable to describe the growth of the pathogen in the two samples. The validation results indicate that the optimal primary model for estimating the SGR was the Baranyi model, and the optimal primary model for estimating LT was the logistic model in ready-to-eat (RTE) ham. The Baranyi model was also the optimal model to estimate the SGR and LT in RTE sausage. These results could be used to standardize predictive models, which are commonly used to identify critical control points in hazard analysis and critical control point systems or for the quantitative microbial risk assessment to improve the food safety of RTE meat products.