Abstract
Effective landslide risk management requires knowledge of the landslide risks. This paper presents a risk assessment methodology for semiregional scale. The landslide probability is assessed taking into account expected climatechange in the case study area (the G?ta river valley). Climate change is expected to result in increased erosion and water fluctuations. There are large areas with marine clays, often quick clay, in the area and the landslide process can be rapid with extensive damages and casualties. The consequence methodology includes a wide range of consequences assessed by monetary valuation. The consequences and the landslide probability are combined as pairs of values in a risk matrix and the risk is also presented on a map. The map has been used as discussion and decision bases in the municipalities in the G?ta river valley, in the county administration and on governmental level to estimate the needs of risk mitigation and to make priorities.
Highlights
Climate change is expected to cause severe impacts on the natural and built environment
The aim of this paper is to present a quantitative landslide risk assessment methodology developed for semiregional scale such as a large run-off area and taking into account a wide range of consequences
The major result of the work described here is the development of a methodology that can be applied for landslide risk assessment and mapping anywhere where sufficient GIS data is available
Summary
Climate change is expected to cause severe impacts on the natural and built environment. In addition to the temperature increase per se, climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrology, e.g. In Norway, Sweden and Northern Europe, the annual precipitation is expected to increase by up to 30% in the period 20712100 compared to the reference period 1961-1990 [2,3,4]. The river runoff is in general expected to be higher in winter, followed by a less pronounced snowmelt peak and lower summer flows [4]. The summers will be dryer but, regardless of season, the predictions indicate an increase of intensive rainfall and extreme flows [3,4]. The changes will lead to increased erosion rate and other impacts that will affect the slope stability such as water level changes and changes in vegetation, e.g. One of the conclusions in the Swedish climate and vulnerability inquiry [6] was that the increased risks related to erosion and landslides will increase in the coming decades to such an extent that adaptation measures are needed to be taken already today
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