Development of Hainan Cruise Tourism Industry Based on Big Data Tourism Demand Forecast

Abstract

AbstractAs our country’s largest special economic zone and province with the largest sea area, Hainan has always been at the forefront of land acquisition and is the pioneer area of our country’s reform and opening up. In order to seize the opportunity and better adapt to market demand and the changes in Hainan’s cruise tourism industry, the overall positioning and planning of the tourism industry is very important to the promotion of the industry, and it must be supported by advanced science and technology. As a new type of technology, big data has been widely used in many fields in recent years. The tourism industry also attaches great importance to the introduction of big data technology into the tourism industry to add support to the development of the tourism industry. This article aims to study the development of Hainan’s cruise tourism industry based on big data tourism demand forecasting. Based on the analysis of the concept of cruise tourism and the problems existing in Hainan’s cruise tourism industry, the Baidu index data of selected keywords will be processed. As the independent variables that affect tourism demand, the ARMA model is used to predict the tourism demand of Hainan cruises, and then the results of the prediction are analyzed. The prediction results show that the absolute error range of the ARMA monthly Hainan cruise passenger volume prediction model that introduces seasonal differences is between 0.2% and 7.8%. It can be seen that the prediction accuracy of this model is high, and the prediction results are also relatively high.KeywordsBig dataTourism demand forecastHainan tourismCruise tourism