Abstract
Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear facilities on external multi-hazards has become a major issue after the Fukushima accident in 2011. However, the existing external hazard PSA methodology is for single hazard events and cannot cover the impact of multi-hazards. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for quantifying multi-hazard risks for nuclear energy plants. Specifically, we developed an efficient multi-hazard PSA methodology based on the probability distribution-based Boolean algebraic approach and sampling-based method, which are currently single-hazard PSA methodologies. The limitations of the probability distribution-based Boolean algebraic approach not being able to handle partial dependencies between the components are solved through this sampling-based method. In addition, we devised an algorithm that was more efficient than the existing algorithm for improving the limits of the current sampling-based method, as it required a significant computational time. The proposed methodology was applied from simple examples to single- and multi-hazard PSA examples of actual nuclear power plants. The results showed that the proposed methodology was verified in terms of accuracy and efficiency perspectives. Regarding the sampling-based method, it was confirmed that the proposed algorithm yielded fragility and risk results that have similar degrees of accuracy, even though it extracted a smaller number of samples than the existing algorithm.
Highlights
Recent events worldwide have demonstrated that natural hazards cannot be neglected in evaluating the risk of industrial facilities
In this Subsection, we propose a methodology for quantifying multi-hazard risks based on the existing single-hazard EE-Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodologies of the probability distribution-based Boolean algebraic approach and the Monte Carlo method-based sampling method
We first verify the accuracy of the proposed method and algorithm by applying the proposed multi-hazard risk quantification methodology to the actual seismic PSA problem of the Limerick Generating Station (LGS)
Summary
Recent events worldwide have demonstrated that natural hazards cannot be neglected in evaluating the risk of industrial facilities. Several studies have been conducted related to natural hazard risk assessment [1,2,3,4]. Basco and Salzano [1] analyzed the hazards related to tsunamis and their impact on the industrial equipment tanks. Salzano et al [2] dealt with the seismic risk analysis of industrial facilities where tanks, reactors, and pumps are installed. Their study discussed the simplified procedures and methodologies based on a historical database and literature data on natural-technological accidents for seismic risk assessment. Prabhu et al [4] described a generalized probabilistic methodology for estimating facility downtime under multi-hazard scenarios. This research demonstrated the applicability of the methodology on industrial plants
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