Development of an Impact Function of Buna (Fagus crenata) Forests For Climate Change Policy Support Models

Abstract

The authors developed an impact function with two explanatory variables (change in annual mean temperature and changc in annual precipitation) for each prefecture of Japan in order to give a simple estimation of the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Buna (Fagus crenata) forests. The impact function predicts that areas suitable for Buna forests will not shrink in response to a temperature increase of less than 2°C in Hokkaido, Gunma, and Nagano prefectures. However, if the temperature increases more than 2°Cand there is no increase in the amount of precipitation, the areas suitable for such forests will decrease in those prefectures. In Tohoku, Hokuriku, and San-in districts, the areas suitable for Buna forests cover a comparatively large area. In these districts, though climate change will cause a decrease in the areas suitable for Buna forests, a relatively large amount of suitable land will still remain. In contrast to this situation, the suitable areas in coastal prefectures along the Pacific Ocean will be drastically reduced with even a slight increase in temperature.