Abstract
With the purpose of studying the influence of population dynamics and economic growth on energy consumption and carbon emissions, an endogenous economic growth model is proposed incorporating physical and human capital and using an Agent-Based Model. The model can test different development strategies by identifying the key factors existing at the agent level that may speed up or slow down a given path, and therefore it is an interesting tool to develop and to test mitigation and/or adaptation measures. Favorable scenarios may be possible in societies that encourage investment in human capital through education and technological development, provided that this is accompanied by a reduction in consumption rates and the creation of physical capital by the population. Moreover, this model shows that human capital resulting from education not only raises productivity, but also plays a key role in the development and adoption of new technologies that drive long-term growth.
Highlights
The rise of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration due to anthropogenic emissions generated by energy consumption of fossil fuels is increasing the additional greenhouse effect
The analysis of the influen ce of demographic variables on these emissions has become a relevant subject in the debate on climate change, since their impact on economic growth has a direct effect on the consumption of goods, primary energy, and on carbon emissions, modifying the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
This research simulates the evolution of population and economic growth, its energy consumption and carbon emissions through an endogenous growth approach, using physical and human capital as feedback variables under an Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulation paradigm
Summary
The rise of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration due to anthropogenic emissions generated by energy consumption of fossil fuels is increasing the additional greenhouse effect. As societies have expanded human capital (more education, better skills and knowledge, higher investment in science), a decline in fertility rates has been observed. This fact is related to female labor force participation, fertility choice, and time spent on individual training [8], [9]. This research simulates the evolution of population and economic growth, its energy consumption and carbon emissions through an endogenous growth approach, using physical and human capital as feedback variables under an Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulation paradigm. These examples show the use of the ABM as a trend for a new kind of simulation approach [26,27]
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