Development of agro-climatic grape yield model for Nashik region, Maharashtra, India

S.j Kadbhane S.J Kadbhane,V.l.manekar V.L.Manekar

doi:10.54386/jam.v22i4.474

Abstract

Prediction of the crop yield is need of time according to the change in climate conditions. In the present study, the Agro-Climatic Grape Yield (ACGY) model has been developed with monthly climatic parameters using multi-regression analysis approach. The developed model was statistically tested for its predictive ability. The discrepancy ratio, the standard deviation of discrepancy ratio, mean percentage error and standard deviation of mean percentage error for the model was obtained as 1.03, 0.19, 0.03% and 0.19, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was carried out for the developed ACGY model using the parametric sensitivity method. In order to know the future grape yield using ACGY model, climate scenarios were generated under Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for three emissions representative concentration pathways as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. According to the analysis using ACGY model, increasing yield was observed in grape up to year 2050 as compared to current yield.

Highlights

Grape (Vitis vinifera) is one of the important and main cash crops of the country
The current study was undertaken to develop Agro-Climatic Grape Yield (ACGY) model for Nashik district with reference to the current climate and it was tested with predicted future climate.For prediction of future climate the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) model was used (Taylor et al, 2012) and for this IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was referred (Arora et al, 2014)
In the development of ACGY model, the parameters from the climate domain were considered as temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine hour, and evapotranspiration

Summary

Introduction

Grape (Vitis vinifera) is one of the important and main cash crops of the country. In the year 2019, India exported 2,16,582MT (103 kg) of grapes to European and Arabian countries, the cost of which was about 269.265 Million USD. An understanding of climate impact on the crop quality and quantity is essential for prediction of crop yield (Abraha and Savage, 2006). The literature survey reveals, crop yield models are performing better on the local scale than global scale (Abraha and Savage 2006; Mohanty et al, 2017). The current study was undertaken to develop Agro-Climatic Grape Yield (ACGY) model for Nashik district with reference to the current climate and it was tested with predicted future climate.For prediction of future climate the SDSM model was used (Taylor et al, 2012) and for this IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was referred (Arora et al, 2014). Future grape yield prediction was carried out separately, for three generated climate scenarios as RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5

Methods

Results

Conclusion