Development of a two-dimensional model to assess carbon dynamics and anthropogenic effects on CO2 emissions in the Tan river, southern China

Abstract

Tidal rivers are key biochemical reaction channels along the land-ocean aquatic continuum, receiving carbon from wastewater and agricultural drains, which can considerably affect CO2 emissions. We developed a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and ecological model coupled with an inorganic carbon module along the Tan River in southern China. The simulations of and observations regarding discharge, temperature, total organic carbon (TOC), total inorganic carbon (TIC), and other common water quality variables were generally in good agreement. Based on the validated model, we employed statistical and scenario analyses to evaluate the carbon distribution, TOC and TIC budgets, and the imbalances induced by climatic and anthropogenic changes, providing insights into their potential greenhouse effect. The Tan River was consistently supersaturated with CO2 with an annual mean air-water CO2 emission flux (FCO2) of 226.1 ± 84.9 mmol m−2 d−1, and significant temporal and spatial variations of FCO2, TOC, and TIC were observed. Urban small streams tended to emit additional CO2 during wet seasons, and rural tributaries usually had an increase in TOC concentrations during the dry season. FCO2 was significantly positively correlated with air temperature and negatively correlated with total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and TOC. The annual riverine input of carbon to the urban river network was 17.37 Gg C yr−1, with 59.82% of TOC, and carbon output was 15.31 Gg C yr−1, with 66.87% of TOC. The retention rates for TOC and total carbon were 50.7% and 11.8% in the urban branch, respectively. Furthermore, warming and wastewater treatment could prevent urban river networks and downstream rivers from becoming carbon sources. Therefore, our findings suggest that riverine management strategies change the global CO2 release from tidal rivers and estuarine systems under climate change.