The impact of economic growth targets on the level of green development-A perspective on officials’ promotion incentives and environmental regulations

Abstract

Currently, China is at a critical stage of accelerating the green transformation of its economic development model, with considerable attention being paid to achieving this transformation while maintaining moderate economic growth. This study uses 271 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020 to examine the impact of local government economic growth target constraints on the level of green economic development and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms. The results show that economic growth targets significantly inhibit the level of urban green development, with this effect being more pronounced in the economically developed eastern regions of China. Hard constraints on economic growth targets have a greater inhibitory effect on green development than soft constraints. The greater the promotion pressure on local officials, the stronger the inhibitory effect of economic growth target constraints on green development. The test of the mediation effect model reveals that economic growth targets can inhibit green development by affecting the degree of regional marketization, leading to mismatches in the capital and labor markets. Moreover, environmental regulations can mitigate the inhibitory effect of economic growth targets on green development levels. The conclusions of this study provide useful insights for local governments to optimize economic development target constraint mechanisms and accelerate high-quality green economic development.