Development of a risk-score for pericarditis recurrence in patients with a first episode of acute pericarditis

Abstract

Abstract Background/Introduction Currently we remain uncertain about which patients are at increased risk for recurrent pericarditis. Purpose We developed a risk score for pericarditis recurrence in patients with acute pericarditis. Methods We prospectively recruited 262 patients with acute pericarditis. Patients' demographics, clinical, imaging and laboratory data at presentation, were collected. Patients were followed-up for a median of 51 months (interquartile range 21–71) for recurrence. Variables with <10% missingness were entered into multivariable logistic regression models with stepwise elimination to explore independent predictors of recurrence. The performance of the final model was assessed by the c-index and model's calibration and the optimism corrected c-index were evaluated after 10-fold cross-validation. Results We identified six independent predictors for pericarditis recurrence i.e., age, effusion size, platelet count (negative predictors) and reduced inferior vena cava collapse, in-hospital use of corticosteroids, and heart rate (positive predictors). The final model had good performance for recurrence, c-index 0.783 (95% CI 0.725–0.842), while the optimism corrected c-index after cross-validation was 0.752. Based on these variables we developed a risk score point system for recurrence (0–22 points) with equally good performance (c-index 0.740, 95% CI 0.677–0.803). Patients with a low score (0–7 points) had 21.3% risk for recurrence, while those with high score (≥12 points) had a 69.8% risk for recurrence (Figure 1). The score was predictive of recurrence among most patient subgroups. Conclusions A simple risk score point system based on 6 variables can be used to predict the individualized risk for pericarditis recurrence among patients with a first episode of acute pericarditis. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Figure 1