Abstract
This study involved developing a natural disaster risk assessment framework based on the consideration of three phases: a pre-disaster phase, disaster impact phase, and post-disaster recovery phase. The exposure of natural disasters exhibits unique characteristics. The interactions of numerous factors should be considered in risk assessment as well as in monitoring environment to provide natural disaster warnings. In each phase, specific factors indicate the relative status in the area subjected to risk assessment. Three types of natural disaster were assessed, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts. The Chishan basin in Taiwan was used as a case study and the adequacy of the relocation of Xiaolin village was evaluated. Incorporating resilience into the assessment revealed that the higher the exposure is, the higher the resilience becomes. This is because highly populated areas are typically allocated enough resources to respond to disasters. In addition, highly populated areas typically exhibit high resilience. The application of this analysis in the policy of relocation of damaged village after disaster provides valuable information for decision makers to achieve the sustainability of land use planning.
Highlights
Inter-Agency Secretariat of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction [1], methods and technologies for risk assessment and systems analysis were employed to identify the relationships among the factors causing natural disasters, and these relationships were presented in a geographic information system (GIS)
The Chishan basin was examined in a case study, and the advantage of relocating Xiaolin village was discussed
This study examined natural disasters, namely debris flows, floods, and droughts, in river basins by employing a system analysis approach
Summary
Predicting natural disasters is highly challenging. Worldwide disaster prevention and response mechanisms employ warning and risk-assessment systems to provide decision makers and the public with information about the dangers of living in areas affected by natural disasters. This study proposes a model that enables calculating the risk of natural disasters in each specific location in the study area, namely Chishan basin in Southern Taiwan. Let it be noted that relicenses in this study refers to infrastructure resilience, namely debris relief facilities, water supply systems and flood remediation facilities. Other measures, such as spatial variation in the distribution of especially vulnerable populations (e.g., the elderly) and locations of informal settlements (e.g., shanties and favelas), are not considered for the lack of information. With the incorporation of resilience into the assessment revealed that exposure and the resilience are both high in the same location This is because highly populated areas usually have adequate resources to respond. Based on the findings, redeveloping Xiaolin village on the original site of the village is proposed as an alternative way other than relocation in this specific case study
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