Development criterion of estimating hourly global solar radiation for all sky conditions in China

Abstract

The high quality hourly global solar radiation data becomes more and more important under the trend of low building energy consumption and carbon emission. The models based on daily global solar radiation and hourly meteorological parameters are two kinds of efficient methods to compensate for measured data deficiency. However, the applicable climate and sky conditions of two models are needed to be clarified. Based on 45 stations in China, the coupling correlations between hourly global solar radiation and meteorological parameters are obtained by correlation analysis. The eight decomposition models and four models based on the main hourly meteorological parameters are developed and evaluated for climates and sky conditions using the mean absolute bias error, relative root mean squared error, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient. Considering the advantages of two kinds of models, the criterion of estimating hourly global solar radiation data is developed. The results show that hourly sunshine duration and hourly surface temperature are the main factors reflecting the change of hourly global solar radiation. In humid and sub-humid climates, the hourly relative humidity can further characterize the fluctuation of hourly global solar radiation. CPR model performs best among decomposition models, especially in sunny sky conditions. The meteorological parameters models own higher accuracy in cloudy conditions. In regions with hourly sunshine duration measurement, CPR model is recommended when daily clearness index is higher than 0.7 and lower than 0.2. When daily clearness index varies from 0.2 to 0.7, the model should be established by selecting hourly sunshine duration and hourly surface temperature in arid and semi-arid climates and hourly sunshine duration, hourly surface temperature and hourly relative humidity in humid and subhumid climates, respectively. In regions without hourly sunshine duration measurement, CPR model should be used regardless of weather conditions and climate types.