Development and validation of a risk prediction model for aspiration in patients with acute ischemic stroke

Abstract

BackgroundAspiration is a frequently observed complication in individuals diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke, leading to potentially severe consequences. However, the availability of predictive tools for assessing aspiration probabilities remains limited. Hence, our study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for accurately predicting aspiration probability in patients with acute ischemic stroke. MethodsWe analyzed 30 potential risk factors associated with aspiration in 359 adult patients diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke. Advanced statistical techniques, such as Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Multivariate Logistic regression, were employed to identify independent predictors. Subsequently, we developed a nomogram prediction model based on these predictors, which underwent internal validation through 1000 bootstrap resampling. Two additional cohorts (Cohort A n = 64; Cohort B, n = 105) were included for external validation. The discriminatory power and calibration performance of the nomogram were assessed using rigorous methods, including the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve analyses, and decision curve analyses (DCA). ResultsThe nomogram was established based on four variables: sputum suction, brain stem infarction, temporal lobe infarction, and Barthel Index score. The predictive model exhibited satisfactory discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.853 (95 % confidence interval, 0.795–0.910), which remained consistent at 0.852 (95 % confidence interval, 0.794–0.912) during the internal validation. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P = 0.394) and calibration curve demonstrated favorable consistency between the predicted and observed outcomes in the development cohort. The AUC was 0.872 (95 % confidence interval, 0.783–0.962) in validation cohort A and 0.877 (95 % confidence interval, 0.764–0.989) in validation cohort B, demonstrating sustained accuracy. DCA showed a good net clinical benefit of the nomogram. ConclusionsA nomogram for predicting the probability of aspiration in patients with acute ischemia has been successfully developed and validated.