Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Following Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy.

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) following percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), aiming to enhance clinical decision-making and treatment planning. Methods: Clinical data of 1,047 patients undergoing PCNL at a single-center hospital between 2017 and 2023 were retrospectively analyzed. Independent risk factors influencing SIRS occurrence were identified through multi-variable logistic regression analysis, and a predictive model was constructed. The model's accuracy and reliability were evaluated through internal training and validation set. Results: Multi-variable regression analysis identified six key predictive factors: gender, diabetes, urine culture results, stone surface, staghorn stones, and operative time, leading to the establishment of a nomogram predictive model. Internal validation and validation set data demonstrated the model's high predictive accuracy and reliability, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.718 and 0.723, respectively. Conclusions: A nomogram predictive model for assessing SIRS following PCNL was successfully developed and validated. This model provides clinicians with a valuable tool for personalized treatment planning and implementing preventive measures.