Abstract
BackgroundWomen who conceived with in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) are more likely to experience adverse pregnancy outcomes than women who conceived naturally. Cervical insufficiency (CI) is one of the important causes of miscarriage and premature birth, however there is no published data available focusing on the potential risk factors predicting CI occurrence in women who received IVF/ICSI treatment. This study aimed to identify the risk factors that could be integrated into a predictive model for CI, which could provide further personalized and clinically specific information related to the incidence of CI after IVF/ICSI treatment.Patients and methodsThis retrospective study included 4710 patients who conceived after IVF/ICSI treatment from Jan 2011 to Dec 2018 at a public university hospital. The patients were randomly divided into development (n = 3108) and validation (n = 1602) samples for the building and testing of the nomogram, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was developed on the basis of pre-pregnancy clinical covariates assessed for their association with CI occurrence.ResultsA total of 109 patients (2.31%) experienced CI among all the enrolled patients. Body mass index (BMI), basal serum testosterone (T), gravidity and uterine length were associated with CI occurrence. The statistical nomogram was built based on BMI, serum T, gravidity and uterine length, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.76–0.90) for the developing cohort. The AUC for the validation cohort was 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.83), showing a satisfactory goodness-of-fit and discrimination ability in this nomogram.ConclusionThe user-friendly nomogram which graphically represents the risk factors and a pre-pregnancy predicted tool for the incidence of CI in patients undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment, provides a useful guide for medical staff on individualized decisions making, where preventive measures could be carried out during the IVF/ICSI procedure and subsequent pregnancy.
Highlights
Women who conceived with in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) are more likely to experience adverse pregnancy outcomes than women who conceived naturally
Body mass index (BMI), basal serum testosterone (T), gravidity and uterine length were associated with Cervical insufficiency (CI) occurrence
The statistical nomogram was built based on BMI, serum T, gravidity and uterine length, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.76–0.90) for the developing cohort
Summary
Women who conceived with in vitro fertilization (IVF) or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) are more likely to experience adverse pregnancy outcomes than women who conceived naturally. Cervical insufficiency (CI) is one of the important causes of miscarriage and premature birth, there is no published data available focusing on the potential risk factors predicting CI occurrence in women who received IVF/ICSI treatment. This study aimed to identify the risk factors that could be integrated into a predictive model for CI, which could provide further personalized and clinically specific information related to the incidence of CI after IVF/ICSI treatment. Cervical insufficiency (CI) is a clinical diagnosis used to describe second trimester painless pregnancy loss in the absence of a precipitating cause. The initial signs in patients with CI are usually present before the experience of contractions or any other clinical symptom of miscarriage or preterm labor, so the opportunity of providing interventional treatment is limited. There is still a lack of a well-defined population for whom the procedure is clearly beneficial [7]
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