Development and deployment of clean electricity technologies in Asia: A multi-scenario analysis using GTEM

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) and emerging renewable energy technologies including wind, solar, geothermal and biomass are commonly considered as possible solutions for the electricity sector transitioning to low-carbon future. However, developing and deploying clean electricity technologies is not a cost-free exercise and it will draw resources from other technologies and production sectors. In this paper four mitigation scenarios with identical emissions pathways but with varying degrees of uptake of clean electricity technologies including CCS and emerging renewable energy technologies, are simulated and their welfare implications are analysed using ABARES' Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM). To capture the range of costs and speeds of developing and deploying clean electricity technologies, technological profiles within electricity and other production sectors are determined endogenously within GTEM allowing a fast growth in one technology at the expense of other technologies. With this induced technology innovation modelling and the specific scenarios, the results presented in this paper suggest that, among Asia's three biggest economies, China may benefit from devoting resources to further developing and deploying CCS and emerging renewable energy technologies while Japan and India may gain from devoting resources to certain conventional clean energy technologies. The modelling results also suggest that coal and gas imports into Asia under the mitigation scenarios will be influenced by, among other things, the size of the carbon price, the extent of fossil fuel dependencies, and, in the case of coal, the relativities of emissions intensities of mining across economies.