A pathway to achieve the net zero emissions target for the public electricity and heat production sector: A case study for Türkiye

Abstract

Various international agreements and mechanisms are established to mitigate climate change by setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Türkiye plans to reduce the emissions by 41% from the Business as Usual level in 2030 and set its net zero target. Thus, reducing the emissions of the electricity and heat production sector, primarily driven by fossil fuels, will help achieve its emission target. This study aims to provide a pathway for designing the Turkish public electricity and heat production sector and its policy reflection to achieve a net zero emissions target for 2053. Türkiye's electricity sector is analyzed based on three scenarios with different emission pathways between 2021 and 2053. The model results show a tremendous increase in installed capacity, generation and cumulative investment costs to achieve the net zero target. However, a minor increase in generation cost, emissions and installed capacity is expected when a reduction of 40% from the Business as Usual level is estimated. These results reveal the need for significant changes in its energy policies to pave the way for substantial investment in renewable and nuclear energy and power plants with carbon capture and storage to achieve the net zero target.