Development and comparison of machine learning models for in-vitro drug permeation prediction from microneedle patch

Abstract

The field of machine learning (ML) is advancing to a larger extent and finding its applications across numerous fields. ML has the potential to optimize the development process of microneedle patch by predicting the drug release pattern prior to its fabrication and production. The early predictions could not only assist the in-vitro and in-vivo experimentation of drug release but also conserve materials, reduce cost, and save time. In this work, we have used a dataset gleaned from the literature to train and evaluate different ML models, such as stacking regressor, artificial neural network (ANN) model, and voting regressor model. In this study, models were developed to improve prediction accuracy of the in-vitro drug release amount from the hydrogel-type microneedle patch and the in-vitro drug permeation amount through the micropores created by solid microneedles on the skin. We compared the performance of these models using various metrics, including R-squared score (R2 score), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Voting regressor model performed better with drug permeation percentage as an outcome feature having RMSE value of 3.24. In comparison, stacking regressor have a RMSE value of 16.54, and ANN model has shown a RMSE value of 14. The value of permeation amount calculated from the predicted percentage is found to be more accurate with RMSE of 654.94 than direct amount prediction, having a RMSE of 669.69. All our models have performed far better than the previously developed model before this research, which had a RMSE of 4447.23. We then optimized voting regressor model’s hyperparameter and cross validated its performance. Furthermore, it was deployed in a webapp using Flask framework, showing a way to develop an application to allow other users to easily predict drug permeation amount from the microneedle patch at a particular time period. This project demonstrates the potential of ML to facilitate the development of microneedle patch and other drug delivery systems.