Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors

Abstract

Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few study on HFMD forecast models was conducted. Here, we analyzed epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and constructed three forecast models. Overall, a total of 32554 HFMD cases were reported and 12 cases deceased in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province. The incidence of HFMD peaked every other year and the curve of HFMD incidence had an approximately W-shape. The majority of HFMD cases were children and 95.76% cases aged ≤5 years old from 2008 to 2016. Furthermore, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). All the three models had high agreements between predicted values and observed values, while GAM fitted best. The exposure-response curve of monthly mean temperature and HFMD was approximately V-shaped. Our study explored epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City and provided accurate methods for early warning which would be great importance for the control and prevention of HFMD.