Development and Application of a Multisite Rainfall Stochastic Downscaling Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessment

Abstract

The coarse resolution of general circulation models (GCMs) necessitates use of downscaling approaches for transfer of GCM output to finer spatial resolutions for climate change impact assessment studies. This paper presents a stochastic downscaling framework for simulation of multisite daily rainfall occurrences and amounts that strive to maintain persistence attributes that are consistent with the observed record. At site, rainfall occurrences are modeled using a modified Markov model that modifies the transition probabilities of an assumed Markov order 1 rainfall occurrence process using exogenous atmospheric variables and aggregated rainfall attributes designed to provide longer‐term persistence. At site rainfall amounts on wet days are modeled using a nonparametric kernel density simulator conditional on previous time step rainfall and selected atmospheric variables. The spatial dependence across the rainfall occurrence and amounts is maintained through spatially correlated random numbers and atmospheric variables that are common across the stations used. The proposed framework is developed using the current climate (years 1960–2002) reanalysis data and rainfall records at a network of 45 rain gauges near Sydney, Australia, while atmospheric variable simulations of the CSIRO Mk3.0 GCM (corresponding to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 emission scenarios) are used for downscaling of rainfall for the current and future (year 2070) climate conditions. Results of the study indicate wetter autumn and summer and drier spring and winter conditions over the region in a warmer climate. The best estimates of annual rainfall project little change in the number of wet days and slight increase (2% in 2070) in the rainfall amount. An increase (about 4%) in daily rainfall intensity (rain per wet day) is estimated in year 2070. Changes in rainfall intensity, wet and dry spells, and rainfall amount in wet spells suggest that the future rainfall regime will have longer dry spells interrupted by heavier rainfall events.