Developing weather-based biomass prediction equation to assess the field pea yield under future climatic scenario

Abstract

The present research focuses on the variation of field pea production under different prevailing weather parameters, aiming to develop a reliable forecasting model. For that a field experiment was conducted in New Alluvial Zone of West Bengal during 2018-19 and 2019-20 with three different varieties (VL42, Indrira Matar, Rachana) of this region. Biomass predicting equation based on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and solar radiation was developed to estimate field pea yield for 2040-2099 period under SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios. It reveals that solar radiation positively influences crop biomass, while high maximum and minimum temperatures have adverse effects on yield. The developed forecasting equation demonstrated its accuracy (nRMSE=17.37%) by aligning closely with historical data, showcasing its potential for reliable predictions. Furthermore, the study delves into future climate scenarios, showing that increasing temperatures are likely to impact field pea yield negatively. Both biomass and yield showed decreasing trend for the years from 2040 to 2099. SSP 5-8.5 scenario, which is more pessimistic one, foresees a substantial reduction in crop productivity. This weather parameter-based biomass prediction equation can be effectively utilized as a method to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture.
 Keywords: Field pea, weather parameters, crop yield prediction, New Alluvial Zone, nRMSE