Abstract
Mathematical Climate Simulation Modeling (MCSM) has the advantage of not only investigating the urban heat island phenomenon but also of identifying the effects of thermal environment improvement plans in detail. As a result, MCSM has been applied worldwide as a scientific tool to analyze urban thermal environment problems. However, the meteorological models developed thus far have been insufficient in terms of their direct application to the urban planning and design fields due to the preprocessing task for modeling operations and the excessive time required. By combining meteorological modeling and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis methods, this study developed the Urban Thermal Environment Management and Planning (UTEMP) system that is user-friendly and can be applied to urban planning and design. Furthermore, the usefulness of UTEMP was investigated in this study by application to areas where the heat island phenomenon occurs frequently: Seoul, Korea. The accuracy of the UTEMP system was verified by comparing its results to the Automatic Weather Systems (AWSs) data. Urban spatial change scenarios were prepared and air temperature variations according to such changes were compared. Subsequently, the urban spatial change scenarios were distinguished by four cases, including the existing condition (before the development), applications of the thermal environment measures to the existing condition, allowable future urban development (the maximum development density under the urban planning regulations), and application of the thermal environment measures to allowable future development. The UTEMP system demonstrated an accuracy of adj. R2 0.952 and a ±0.91 Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). By applying the UTEMP system to urban spatial change scenarios, the average air temperature of 0.35 °C and maximum air temperature of 1.27 °C were found to rise when the maximum development density was achieved. Meanwhile, the air temperature reduction effect of rooftop greening was identified by an average of 0.12 °C with a maximum of 0.45 °C. Thus, the development of UTEMPS can be utilized as an effective tool to analyze the impacts of urban spatial changes and for planning and design. As a result, the UTEMP system will allow for more efficient and practical establishment of measures to improve the urban thermal environment.
Highlights
The urban thermal environment is increasingly worsening as climate change, urbanization, and human activities increase [1]
A Mathematical Climate Simulation Model (MCSM) that interprets natural phenomena as a mathematical equation using computers has been mainly applied to urban thermal environment analysis [5]
The objective of this study is to develop a SDSS (Spatial Decision Support System) to foster urban thermal environment improvement through urban planning and design, and to verify the usefulness of the developed system
Summary
The urban thermal environment is increasingly worsening as climate change, urbanization, and human activities increase [1]. It would be ideal to utilize long-term observational data throughout the entire urban area in order to investigate urban climatic characteristics and to analyze the effects of thermal environment improvement measures. This is practically impossible due to space constraints, installation time, and expensive operating costs [4]. There are challenges for non-specialists related to climate model research to operate MCSMs. In addition, despite the progress of computer processing speed, it takes a relatively long time to identify model results [5,17], which makes it difficult to compare the alternatives that are changed frequently in the process of urban planning and design. Its usefulness for urban planning and design were identified by investigating air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes
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