Abstract
Improvements in accuracy do not necessarily result in more valuable forecasts. Forecasts are of little value, no matter how accurate they are, if they are not used. Many planners distrust forecasts. To help ensure that forecasts are used, forecasters have to determine what types of forecasts are needed. Based on interviews with a dozen veteran forecasters and extensive personal experience, the author develops guidelines for improving the value of forecasts by including planners in the forecast development process. Forecasting reports should be simple and easy to interpret. A preliminary report should be distributed for suggestions to resolve possible problems before the final presentation. After the forecasting numbers are distributed, forecasters should follow up to see how forecasts are used. Such group efforts in preparing forecasts typically improve both the accuracy and the acceptability and thus the value of forecasts.
Published Version
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