Abstract
One of the major problem of photovoltaic grid integration is limiting the solar-induced imbalances since these can undermine the security and stability of the electrical system. Improving the forecast accuracy of photovoltaic generation is becoming essential to allow a massive solar penetration. In particular, improving the forecast accuracy of large solar farms’ generation is important both for the producers/traders to minimize the imbalance costs and for the transmission system operators to ensure stability. In this article, we provide a benchmark for the day-ahead forecast accuracy of utility scale photovoltaic (PV) plants in 1325 locations spanning the country of Italy. We then use these benchmarked forecasts and real energy prices to compute the economic value of the forecast accuracy and accuracy improvement in the context of the Italian energy market’s regulatory framework. Through this study, we further point out several important criticisms of the Italian “single pricing” system that brings paradoxical and counterproductive effects regarding the need to reduce the imbalance volumes. Finally, we propose a new market-pricing rule and innovative actions to overcome the undesired effects of the current dispatching regulations.
Highlights
In Italy, over 20 years, the electric mix has evolved from 20% to 35% worth of renewable energy (RE)generation and, in only 10 years, solar became the second most prevalent RE source after hydropower (Figure 1a)
We first showed that the accuracy of our irradiance forecasts could be considered “state of the art” in Italy
We provided a benchmark for the forecast accuracy of the “relevant” PV plants generation in 1325 locations in Italy
Summary
Generation and, in only 10 years, solar became the second most prevalent RE source after hydropower (Figure 1a). 55% of the electricity demand to come from RE sources and define how this target can be reached in Italy (Figure 1a). The growth of RE penetration (i.e., the fraction of annual demand covered by renewable sources) should be driven by wind and solar generation (Figure 1b). Wind generation has to increase from the current 17.2 TWh/year to 40 TWh/year, while solar production from 24.4 TWh/year to. In this way, by 2030, the photovoltaic (PV) penetration (which is already one of the highest in Europe [3] and the third in the world [4]) will increase from 8% to 22%, becoming the first.
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