Abstract
In this study, environmental sustainability implications of planned rail infrastructure investments on the urban form and development in the Greater Dublin Region (GDR) have been analysed incorporating the scenario analysis approach. Various scenarios are developed using the MOLAND Model applications including: A baseline scenario incorporating a continuation of the present dispersed pattern of urban development and an alternative scenario with rail-oriented corridor development, under varying conditions of economic growth. An alternative scenario was also developed for the recessionary development case considering the prolonged recession in the GDR. Further explorations incorporating a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) approach are developed to evaluate the sustainability implications of different land development scenarios in the Dublin Region. This is assisted by focussing on the impacts of rail investments on urban form and development as raised in the international comparative literature. The findings from the CBA assessment positively indicate that containment policies-as represented by the public transport oriented development indicate benefits over the dispersed development case by reducing the negative consequences of sprawl type of developments. In contrast, dispersed development in the baseline scenario indicates costs of continuation of such development patterns exceed the benefits in the long term. This study will contribute to policy support evaluation measures relating to the integration of scenario analysis tool with the CBA approach in assisting the evaluation of new transport infrastructure proposals.
Highlights
In recent decades, rapid growth of peri-urban areas in many of the European metropolitan centres has resulted in significant consequences on the development of the urban environment
The differences between the scenarios are very clear: in Scenario 1, the Greater Dublin Region (GDR) has experienced residential development some part of which is in the vicinity of the existing urban area and some other parts are scattered across the region in many small clusters
In accordance with the estimations from the Metro North Transportation Model (MNTM)
Summary
Rapid growth of peri-urban areas in many of the European metropolitan centres has resulted in significant consequences on the development of the urban environment. Transformation from compact to more dispersed structures has significant implications on the urban environment: negative effects on the air and water quality, increased travel and accessibility costs and unwanted social equity costs are often cited as some of the most important problems faced by many metropolitan centres [2,3]. The existence of such problems has led to a focus on the policies of urban sustainable development and urban growth management within the context of sustainability. Efficiency of transportation is closely related to the evolving urban structure since the degree of compactness and density affect commuting distance and time, feasibility of the main transport system and travel-related energy consumption and pollution levels
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