Developing adaptive resilience in infrastructure systems: an approach to quantify long-term benefits

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ABSTRACT To enable systems to adapt to changing future conditions, ensuring adaptive capacity in resilience planning is critical. Thispaper presents an approach to evaluate the long-term benefits of adaptive resilience in infrastructuresystems under future uncertainty. The methodology uses long timeframeassessment methods based on NPV and approaches to quantifying different levelsof uncertainty along with multi-criteria assessment methods. The approach is demonstrated usingthree case studies, where investments have focused on different aspects ofadaptive resilience in various infrastructure systems. The results demonstratethe increasing benefits of adaptive strategies over time with ongoing learningand the evolving nature of resilience needs. The presented approach can be usedby decision-makers in multiple infrastructure sectors. A flexible approach to evaluate the long-term benefits of building adaptive capacity to enhanceresilience, this methodology can be a useful tool for practitioners and policymakers topresent a business case for long-term adaptive resilience investments..