Developing a spatial-based predictive model for conservation area management prioritization using ecosystem service and site suitability index in Java Island

Abstract

Primary forests in Indonesia are in high decline. The increase in population exacerbates forest reductions, as forests are changed to settlements. This impacts the loss of biodiversity and animals in Indonesia. An important way to prevent the loss of biodiversity and animals is to conserve crucial areas. Spatial modeling can be done to detect conservation areas that are important for the future. This study analyzes the index of forest ecosystem services and habitat suitability of extinct animals to determine priority conservation areas. Here we predict forest areas that are indicated to be lost in the future. We use integrated spatial data using GIS (Geography Information System) to determine priority conservation areas. From the results, we predict that there will be a change in land cover to settlement by 2030. This causes the ecosystem service index (ESI) value to decrease from an initially high value each year. In terms of land suitability, the majority will decrease by 2030. The integration that has been performed also shows a very high decrease in the ESI value and a very high conformity value in the Java region. This research can hopefully be used by policy makers to determine new conservation areas on the island of Java.