Spatial-temporal evolution of ecosystem services and its potential drivers: A geospatial perspective from Bairin Left Banner, China

Abstract

Ecosystem services (ESs) declines have been widely recognized due to natural and human drivers and in turn negatively affected human well-beings, particularly in semi-arid regions. However, in which way and to what extent these drivers influence ESs spatially remains to be further demonstrated. This work aims to address this gap by capturing variations of geographic scales in this process. In this study, the CA-Markov and InVEST () model were combined to assess four key ESs and ecosystem service index (ESI) from 2000 to 2035, and spatial pattern of ESI were identified under different development scenarios. The Spearman correlation was conducted to analyze the tradeoffs and synergies of ESs changes among their historical associations. The multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) was adopted to explore the spatial heterogeneity of responses on ESI from various drivers. The results are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, ESI decreased significantly in the north resulted from the deforestation, while there was a growing tendency of emergence for ESI hotspots in the south due to the implementation of ecological management measures. Compared to other scenarios, fewer cold spots of ESI variation were observed in the ecological preservation scenario from 2020 to 2035 especially in northern forests. (2) The significant positive correlations between habitat quality, soil conservation and carbon storage were strengthened while negative correlations between habitat quality, carbon storage and water yield had decreased over time. (3) The geographic scales at which different drivers interacted with ESI varied remarkably. The process of elevation and GDP were modeled at global scales, indicating their spatially homogeneous effects on ESI. However, effects of slope and vegetation on ESI were operated at local scales, with the spatial correlation coefficients varied greatly. (4) There existed apparent spatial heterogeneity of responses on ESI from natural and human drivers. The combined effects of vegetation and precipitation played a significant role in driving ESI among natural drivers. The effects of geomorphological drivers were closely related to vegetation types and anthropogenic drivers. A method was provided in this study to intuitively reveal the spatial relationships between ESI and various drivers in view of their different geographic scales. We suggest that ecological measures such as forestation shall be implemented prudently according to local water resources based on our results. These findings could provide more practical and feasible measures for the ecological sustainability in semi-arid regions and offer a reference for other similar regions in the world.