Developing a novel anticipated inherent risk assessment approach applicable in early stages of process design

Abstract

Inherently Safer Design (ISD), as one of the most fundamental approaches to process safety, focuses on the innate design features. Numerous tools have been developed to assess ISD and risk-based indices are one of the most elevated of them. Existing indices are limited in modelling consequences or are challenging to adapt in terms of probability. This study introduces the Anticipated Inherent Risk Index (AIRI), a robust tool for rapid risk assessment of the worst anticipated scenarios. It incorporates Furthest Effect Distance of the release from the largest connection, by software, and Representative Failure frequency, which is a relative dataset calculated from renown databases. This presents a relative risk map upon major consequences and their likelihood. AIRI applied to a PDH Fractionation Subunits shows that Heat Pump Compressor Suction Drum (AIRI≈3399) in PP Splitter Section, followed by Propylene Trim Condenser (AIRI≈1931) and PP Splitter Reboiler/Condenser (AIRI≈1798) are the equipment with the highest risk. AIRI is a competent tool for early high-level analysis of equipment risk, which gives useful indications on design and how to improve it. This tool also has the potential to be equipped with vaster frequency datasets and effects analysis and to be incorporated into other process safety studies.