Abstract
Following the 1993 World Trade Organization (WTO) agreement, pest risk analyses (PRAs) must now follow internationally agreed standards. However, the international PRA standards under development provide little detailed guidance on the most complex areas of PRA: the assessment of introduction potential and economic impact. This is particularly difficult when a large area, such as Europe, with a wide variety of climatic zones and crop agroecosystems is being studied. This paper shows that the datasets required to analyse the potential for pest establishment can best be integrated and the results displayed in a pest risk map using a Geographical Information System (GIS). To illustrate how a pest risk mapping system might be developed, European risk maps forLeptinotarsa decemlineata, Ceratitis capitataandBactrocera tryoniwere constructed using CLIMEX, a dynamic simulation model which predicts potential distribution based on climate, with a 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude 1961–90 European gridded climatology and displayed in a GIS. The developments required to refine these predictions and create a generic European pest risk mapping system are outlined.
Published Version
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