Developing a dynamic quality prediction model for limited samples target grade based on transfer learning

Abstract

In response to the dynamic demands of the market, this study addresses the challenge of frequent operational adjustments in a production line to accommodate diverse product grades. The resulting scarcity of data in the new operating conditions (target grade) impedes the development of reliable soft-sensor prediction models. A two-step learning method, termed S2-LGMNSSM-TS-T, is proposed. This method employs a semi-supervised latent Gaussian mixture nonlinear state space model (S2-LGMNSSM-TS) trained on both target and source data, providing a dynamic, one-step-ahead predictive soft sensor. To overcome data scarcity in the target grade, insights from the source are utilized. With a Gaussian mixture prior distribution, S2-LGMNSSM-TS identifies dynamic behaviors in both target and source grades. The enhanced S2-LGMNSSM-TS-T configuration focuses on target-grade predictions, leveraging source knowledge and mitigating data scarcity issues. A numerical example and an industrial case study demonstrate the model's effectiveness in improving target-grade predictions through source knowledge utilization.