Developing a Disaster Chain Method to Evaluate Transportation Systems: A Pilot Study of Predicting Debris Blockages in Disaster-Response Road Systems

Abstract

Suitable transportation systems are vital for the functioning of urban areas. Such systems connect all major locations, including residential and commercial locations, in these areas. The effectiveness of the response of an urban area to an earthquake depends on the road system in the area. A feasible and efficient approach to evaluating the capacity of road systems to allow safe and efficient emergency transportation for affected residents in the aftermath of an earthquake should be developed. Ground transportation systems are vulnerable to earthquakes. For example, ground motion in the 1994 Northridge, 1995 Kobe, 1999 Chi-Chi, and 2018 Hokkaido earthquakes caused severe damage to urban roads and bridges. Moreover, for areas with a high building density that are prone to high-intensity earthquakes, it is important to be able to estimate the risk of road blockage caused by collapsed buildings. In the present study, a disaster impact chain was established to evaluate the probability and effects of buildings collapsing in an earthquake. This chain was used as the basis for a road blockage model and for the formulation of suitable procedures and methods for earthquake response. The results of this study indicate that buildings in strong-motion zones are severely damaged by high-intensity earthquakes. Falling debris from these buildings can lead to the blockage of rescue roads, delaying the transport of injured individuals to hospital after an earthquake. The results of this study can aid authorities in making decisions related to transportation system management during earthquake disasters.