Deterministic and probabilistic analysis of Ukrainian residential property market evolution in turbulent 2019-2022 years

Abstract

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the influence of Covid-19, current war and other factors on the dynamics of real estate prices in Ukraine from 2019Q2 to 2022Q4. More specifically, the authors examine the extent of the influence of Covid-19 and war on the real estate market in Ukraine.Design/methodology/approachThe authors monitor and accumulate information flows from the existing real estate market with their subsequent in-depth math-stat processing to examine dynamics and drivers of Ukrainian real estate prices evolution.FindingsThe study finds that the Ukrainian residential property market has experienced an average growing trend from June 2019 to December 2022, despite the strong influence of pandemic and war. The analysis shows that the impact of these factors varies across different regions and property types, with some areas and property types being more affected than others. The study also identifies the main drivers of the market evolution, including cost-sensitive factors such as floor level, overall area, housing conditions and geographical location.Research limitations/implicationsThis research is oriented to analyze evolution of residential property market in Ukraine in 2019–2022 years characterized by influence of such disturbing factors as pandemic and military actions.Practical implicationsResults gained are essential for any type of Ukrainian residential market analytics implementation including but not limited to investment analysis, valuation services, collateral, insurance and taxation purposes, etc. In broader sense, it can be also useful for comparison with same type market development in other geographical arears.Social implicationsInitial data base collected and constantly monitored covers all different regions of the country that gives a broad view on the overall market development influenced by pandemic and war.Originality/valueThe lack of a reliable database of the purchase and sale of residential properties remains one of the biggest obstacles in obtaining reliable data on their market value. This considerably complicates the process of carrying out a valuation and reduces the accuracy and reliability of the results of such work. This is especially important for market which evolves in times of unrest being influenced by such strongly disturbing factors as pandemic and military actions. The originality of the study lies in the development of a complete probabilistic processing of the initial database, which provides a reliable and accurate assessment of the market evolution. The results achieved could be used by various stakeholders, such as property owners, investors, valuers, insurers, regulators and other interested customers, to make informed decisions and mitigate risks in the turbulent Ukrainian real estate market.