Determining the overall indicated levels, nature, dynamics and influences upon UK sustainability 2000–2018

Abstract

Composite indicators are a commonly used tool to evaluate sustainability, due to their ability to determine and communicate complex phenomena or issues. However, this has led to a wide range of assessments with differing outcomes, thus resulting in confusion in fostering sustainability. Furthermore, simplistic conclusions from composite indicators can be drawn, which are not reflective of the true real-world complexities, particularly given sustainability's multi-faceted nature. To resolve this, a different approach is necessary whereby the indicator tool(s) are applied to a consistent conceptual and operational holistic framework to determine and evaluate sustainability. Therefore, this paper applies the results of four composite indicator tools to the Sustainability Dynamics Framework, in order to determine and evaluate the indicated cumulative levels, nature, and dynamics of sustainability occurring for the United Kingdom over the period of 2000–2018. Sustainability is determined from a cumulative basis using three perspectives – Vulnerability, Brundtland, and the Environmental Performance Index-Human Development Index (EPI-HDI). The results obtained indicate that the cumulative nature of UK sustainability is consistent with very weak sustainability. This is based upon the nature of sustainability occurring from each perspective being very weak unsustainability for vulnerability, weak sustainability for Brundtland, and strong sustainability for the EPI-HDI. Using a specifically developed dynamic model based upon the results obtained, the dynamic analysis indicates that the UK is potentially at risk of an environment and/or societal crisis occurring. This is due to the excessive level of population and the resultant levels of anthropospheric activities and needs required to sustain it, through the significant transformation of natural and critical environmental resources and services into anthropospheric forms of resources and services. A fundamental transformation within the UK is urgently required to restore the co-evolutionary relationship, by population optimisation, environmental restoration and conservation, and non-impactful social and economic development.