Determining the Bilge Water Waste Risk and Management in the Gulf of Antalya by the Monte Carlo Method

Abstract

ABSTRACT Bilge water waste poses an environmental risk for humans and marine creatures by causing cancer and developmental disorders due to the toxic substances. This study aims to create a calculation method to calculate the amount of bilge that a ship can produce. The number of ships and the amount of bilge water that they have given the port waste reception facilities in the past years were collected to prevent marine pollution caused by ships in the Gulf of Antalya. The amount of possible future bilge water discharge in the gulf was estimated by using the collected data by linear regression method. The risk distribution of the amount of bilge water that a ship can produce was determined with the data obtained by the Monte Carlo method for the first time in this study. As a result, although the number of ships in the gulf will decrease in number, it is predicted that the amount of bilge water discharge and the needs of a waste receptions facility will increase in the coming years. It is found that the amount of bilge water that a ship can generate will vary in 0.78-3.16 m3, and this data can apply to every ship type. Since the calculation method used in this study can be used for each region with all ship types in calculating the amount of bilge waste a ship can produce, it ensures that the inspections made are more effective. Thus, the management of wastes originating from ships can be effectively and adequately implemented by those who carry out wastes, and marine pollution from ships can be prevented.