Determining Factors Effecting the Population Growth Rate of Villages in Turkey: An Econometric Perspective

Abstract

Assuming core (permanent) population to be vital to the maintenance of the village and rural life, this study investigates the population growth rate (PGR) of villages in Turkey. PGR is used as a dependent variable in the analysis, using a sample of 201 villages. The independent variables are ascertained through face-to-face interviews with village heads (mukhtars). Hypothesis tests, correlation analysis and econometric models are used to examine the development/decline trends of the PGR of the village. The results show that total land property of the village and land property per household are the strongest variables supporting the continuity of population. Agricultural income remains the biggest income item in most villages, and this increases according to land size. Beyond this, opportunities for paid work outside the village while living in it (extra-village employment) positively affect the rate of increase of the village population.